Latest Monthly and Seasonal Outlooks from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble Forecast

Latest Monthly and Seasonal Outlooks from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble Forecast

Note: The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) is an experimental multi-model seasonal forecasting system consisting of forecast models from several US modeling centers along with Canada's Meteorological Centre.

The latest outlooks for temperature and precipitation were released from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble this week.  The Outlooks include the monthly forecast for July as well as the seasonal forecast for Jul-Aug-Sep.

The monthly outlook maps are below.  For temperature, a warmer than normal July is expected for a large part of the country.  The odds are particularly good (70% or above) for parts of the Southwest.

July precipitation, as usual, is less certain, although, we see some enhanced odds of high than normal July precipitation in the Southern Plains, along the Gulf Coast, and parts of the East Coast.

July Temperature Outlook

July Precipitation Outlook

Jul-Aug-Sep Season

Somewhat similar to expectations for July, the Seasonal Outlook shows enhanced odds of a warmer than normal Jul-Aug-Sep.  The odds are highest in parts of the Northern Plains, Intermountain West, and the West Coast/Pacific Northwest.

Precipitation for Jul-Aug-Sep is more up in the air, however, the models are picking up on the possibility of reduced precipitation in western Montana and Idaho while the Gulf and East Coast could continue their recent trend of enhanced precipitation through September.

Jul-Aug-Sep Temperature Outlook

Jul-Aug-Sep Precipitation Outlook

Rainfall from Cristobal Largely Misses Areas in Drought

Rainfall from Cristobal Largely Misses Areas in Drought

The path of Cristobal produced a number of impacts across the Gulf and middle of the country including the Corn Belt.  As Cristobal departs for areas north of the Border, we see that the storm produced some very heavy bands of rain up into Wisconsin.

7-Day Observed Rainfall. The impact of Cristobal can largely been seen in the orange/red colors.

Gulf Coast Drought Recovery

While the storm surge from Cristobal was close to 6-feet, one benefit from the storm is areas along the Coast that have been extremely dry will have mostly recovered.  The map below shows last week’s drought monitor and we expect when the new map comes out tomorrow (Thursday, June 10, 2020) most of the Gulf Coast should be drought free.

For the rest of the areas in drought, we expect to see drought intensifying in the Texas Panhandle, Colorado, Wyoming,  and Montana. 

US Drought Monitor from June 4, 2020, along with areas in blue that received at least 3" of rainfall over the last 7-days.

Good Weather and Good Bulls for PBR’s Monster Energy Team Challenge Kickoff Weekend

Good Weather and Good Bulls for PBR’s Monster Energy Team Challenge Kickoff Weekend

Stetson Wright during the third day of Division A play at the Monster Energy Team Challenge PBR. Photo By: Andy Watson @BullStockMedia.
All images are courtesy Andy Watson/Bull Stock Media.

Busting out of the chutes in a unique team spirit at the opening weekend of the PBR (Professional Bull Riders) Monster Energy Team Challenge at South Point Arena in Las Vegas, PBR bull riders gave it their all during three consecutive ‘live’ bull riding televised weekend match-ups June 6, 7, and 8; with ‘Team Cooper Tires’ and ‘Team Las Vegas’ both ending up 3-0 and running neck and neck.  World No. 1 bull rider Jose Vitor Leme of Ribas do Rio Pardo, Brazil dominated Team Cooper Tires performance going head-to-head against three-time PBR World Champion Silvano Alves of Pilar do Sul, Brazil and Team Union Home Mortgage, which went into the showdown with a 1-1 record.

At the Pendleton Whisky Let ‘Er Buck Saloon at South Point Arena in Las Vegas, Leme rode The Tickler; a bull owned by partners Dakota Rodeo-Chad Berger/Clay Struve/Ken Barnhard for 88.5 points.  “All the rides are very important for us,” Jose Vitor Leme said on CBS following Team Cooper Tires’ first PBR Team challenge. “There are a lot of good teams, and I am so grateful for these guys to help my team win today.”

Hosting the team challenge was a first for almost everyone, but for 9x PBR Stock Contractor of the Year Chad Berger, just being AT the event was ultimately a very emotional ‘ride’ in his life, this year.’s Amy Hadachek interviewed Chad the next morning, after the sensory overload three-day weekend.  When asked what Berger thought of the performances of his bulls; The Tickler and Rising Sun… “I thought they did okay,” he said. Pausing, a range of emotions kicked in for the nine-time PBR Stock Contractor of the year.

“I was pretty much under the weather from surgery I had…and still am, but I was happy to see any of my bulls buck.  Red Dawn was the best bull there – by far.  I really enjoyed watching it, because I didn’t know if I WOULD GET to watch anymore.  Just a lot of emotion,” acknowledged Berger…pausing…“and I was really proud of Red Dawn.  Yes; they’re still gonna have to deal with me for awhile…that’s what we get up in the morning for – to be the best we can.”

Just putting on this event – was an impressive feat.  “I want to thank Sean Gleason (who has served as CEO and Commissioner of the PBR since 2015) and the PBR for working so hard so the riders and bull owners can make the money.  They made it a little easier for us to get through this (COVID-19 pandemic.)  It would’ve been a lot easier for him to walk away and say this is too hard. 

He kept going up to the plate and kept going til he hit a grand slam…to make sure we got to go to Guthrie (Oklahoma,) and now to Vegas and it took a lot of hard work,” said Berger.  “It takes a special kind of kind of guy to do that, and get it done.”


Team Challenge Week 1 Rider Stats

Then we asked Chad, “Since this is also a livestock AND weather website…how has weather impacted handling bulls?…and their feed in Las Vegas?…”

    “We put shade up, you don’t want to get them too hot out there,” Berger responded, adding, “We keep them on a lighter ration, and you gotta know how to take care of your animals. Don’t get your feed too hot…take less of the corn and barley which makes them too hot.  In the wintertime back up in North Dakota, you use a lot of corn to keep them warm, but in summer you don’t,” noted Berger.  Having access to shade and airflow and cool, clean water is vital. 

Tools for Assessing Cattle Heat and Cold Stress

Beef Cattle Temperature Humidity Chart

A tool from University of Nebraska for calculating stress in excessive heat and humidity:
In Kansas, there’s the Cattle Comfort Index (for heat, or cold):

Good Weather and Good Bulls

At least Las Vegas weather was fairly cooperative for both the bulls and stock contractors, while hauling the bovines.  Saturday evening – during the PBR Team Challenge, temperatures were warm; in the mid 80’s but the dewpoint (the measure of moisture content) was in the upper 30’s, so at least it wasn’t humid or uncomfortable for the bulls. The wind was, a bit of a challenge at times; out of the south/southwest at 25 mph and gusting to 33 mph most of the early evening Saturday.

By Sunday morning, bull riders arrived at the arena, greeted by 70-degrees outside with a 35-degree dewpoint which made the dry air very pleasant, and the wind had calmed down considerably with a south wind at just 6 miles an hour.

Meanwhile, Day 3 inside the bucking chutes was ‘touch and go’ for awhile, as Luciano de Castro of Guzolandia, Brazil, of Team Union Home Mortgage tied-up the score as he also earned 88.5-points riding the bull Rising Sun, also owned by Dakota Rodeo/Chad Berger/Struve/Heald Pro Bulls.

Then, six-time PRCA Bull Riding Champion Sage Kimzey of Strong City, Oklahoma of Team Cooper Tires, despite injuring his right riding arm the previous day/Saturday, rode the bull Big Mac, owned by Hodges/Shuler, for 87.25 points; and Team Cooper Tires.

Team Challenge Week 1 Bull Stats

On paper, we are the favorites,” Sage Kimzey said on CBS during the PBR Team Challenge. “There is a target on our back and that is a position I like to be in. We are Number one and that is the position everyone wants to be in.”

So, with a 175.75-88.5 victory (over Team Union Home Mortgage,) Team Cooper Tires concluded the first weekend of competition a flawless 3-0, remaining atop the Division A leader-board.  There were rave reviews about the leadership of Jose Vitor Leme, with every bull rider looking up to Jose, who is still in control of the Built Ford Tough MVP race.

Stetson Lawrence, Jose Vitor Leme, Stetson Wright, Keyshawn Whitehorse, during the third day of Division A play at the Monster Energy Team Challenge PBR. Photo by Andy Watson

Also on Day 3, with a 3-0 lead, reigning PRCA All-Around Champion and Captain Stetson Wright of Milford, Utah propelled Team Las Vegas after his 87.5-point ride on the bull Dynamite Cap owned by stock contractor/former bull rider J.W. Hart Cattle Co./Randy Wood.  Then, Chase Dougherty of Canby, Oregon had a 87.25-point ride aboard Silent Night, also owned by Hart Cattle Co./Randy Wood.  The 174.75-0 win (against Team Wrangler) allowed Team Las Vegas to maintain their No. 2 rank in Division A.

Week 2 Schedule

Team Cooper Tires will look to earn its fourth win against Team Wrangler on Challenge Day 4 on Friday, June 12.  Team Las Vegas will next go head-to-head against Team Can-Am on Challenge Day 4 on Friday, June 12.

The PBR Monster Energy Team Challenge continues each weekend ‘live’ on the CBS Sports Network, but without fans due to COVID-19.  Each Sunday in June, the third game of the broadcast is the ‘Game of the Week.’  As such, the telecast moves from CBS Sports Network to CBS.  Then, the top three teams from each division; as decided by the games in Las Vegas, will compete in July before fans in Sioux Falls, South Dakota at the Denny Sanford PREMIER Center. 

The excitement is mounting this month with the countdown underway to have fans in the stands again; next month.  We asked Chad Berger, if he was looking forward to seeing the fans again – in South Dakota in July?

“You ain’t kidding…I’m ready.  There were a few times – I wanted to see my grand kids.”  There’s no doubt now; he gets to see them…and all the fans who will be waiting to appreciate the cowboys, and give Berger; in his healing; a grand show of support.