Drought Trends for June 11, 2019

[Excerpt from the June 11th U.S. Drought Monitor]

This U.S. Drought Monitor week saw highly beneficial rainfall activity across drought-stricken areas of the Southeast. Across this region, locally heavy rainfall accumulations (ranging from 2 to 8+ inches) and localized flash flooding were observed. These soaking rains helped to significantly improve soil moisture as well as boost streamflow levels in some of the areas hardest hit by the recent heatwave. In parts of the Midwest, continued rains, flooding, and very moist soils delayed the planting of crops—including corn and soybeans. According to the USDA June 11th Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin, “only 67% of the nation’s corn and 39% of the soybeans had been planted, breaking 1995 records of 77 and 40%, respectively.” In northern North Dakota, areas of drought expanded in relation to short-term precipitation deficits and reported impacts in the agricultural sector. Out West, drought intensified in the Idaho Panhandle where poor snowpack conditions during the 2018–19 season have led to below-normal snowmelt runoff conditions. Nationwide, May of 2019 was the 2nd wettest May on record for the contiguous U.S., according to NOAA’s National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI).

The percentage of cattle, corn, and hay in drought continues to remain low at 2% cattle, 2% hay, and 1% of corn areas considered in drought.

2% Cattle in Drought

2% Hay in Drought

Most recent (June 11th) U.S. Drought Monitor showing areas in Abnormally Dry (yellow) or Drought (orange). Counties in blue have 50K head of cattle or great, while counties in green produce 40K tons of hay or greater.

Interactive chart showing cattle, hay, and corn areas in drought since 2011. Mouse over the chart to see individual years.

Potential Areas of Drought Improvement and Deterioration

The 7-Day Accumulated Precipitation Forecast is calling for moderate-to-heavy rainfall totals from 2-to-4 inches across eastern portions of the Southern Plains, lower Midwest, and coastal areas extending from Georgia to North Carolina. Lesser accumulations (<2 inches) are forecasted for portions of the upper Midwest, Northeast, southern Florida, and the northern Rockies of Montana and Wyoming. Elsewhere in the West, dry conditions are expected.

The map at right shows drought trends in the U.S. Drought Monitor over the last month. Areas in yellow/brown indicate areas where drought has intensified, while areas in green indicate where drought has improved. The Southeast, South Texas, and the Northern Plains (MT and ND) are places where drought has intensified over the last month.

With the upcoming moisture in the Southeast we expect conditions there to improve. With the expected high-temperatures in South Texas we expect some intensification of drought there and potentially along the U.S.-Mexico border. We expect drought to remain somewhat unchanged over the next couple of weeks in Montana and North Dakota. While they are expected to see some precipitation it likely will not be enough to change their current moisture deficits.

Most recent (June 11th) U.S. Drought Monitor Change Map from May 14-June 11th, 2019. Green colors show were drought conditions have improved over the last month while yellow/brown colors indicate areas where drought has intensified.

Chad McNutt

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June 14, 2019

14-Day mid-June Forecasts and Other Analytics

14-Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast: June 14-June 27

Below normal temperatures are expected for parts of the southern Rockies, the Great Plains, the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the Great Lakes region as a result of a trough of low pressure forecast over the region. Increased above normal temperature probabilities are forecast for California coast due to forecast anomalous warmth early in this period. Chances of above normal temperatures are also enhanced over the Southern Plains and the eastern part of the country CONUS, influenced by low-level southerly flow.

14-Day Accumulated Precipitation (in) Forecast: June 14-June 27

The trough of low pressure over the West is expected to increase the probability of above normal precipitation over much of the eastern and central U.S. Above normal precipitation chances are increased over the Northern and Central Rockies and Northern and Central Plains due to an increased potential for convective activity.

Increased below normal precipitation probabilities are forecast over the Southern Plains and Florida.

CATTLE DENSITIES & the 14-Day Temperature and Precipitation Forecasts: June 14-June 27

We feel like a broken record but large numbers (scaled circles) of cattle in the Central Plains will continue to see COLDER (blue) and WETTER (green) than normal temperatures through the end of June. Texas is the one exception and will likely see above-average temperatures.

14-Day Temp-Precip Forecast for the 12 Major Feeder Cattle-Producing States

Texas and Missouri will likely see state-wide average temperatures above-normal over the next two weeks. The rest of the 12-state area will see below-normal temperatures. Wyoming and Colorado could see state-wide average departures of 3 degrees F or more below normal. Oklahoma could see state-wide precipitation totals exceeding 3″. Kansas, Iowa, and Nebraska could see state-wide average totals between 2-3″.

Chad McNutt

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June 6, 2019

Latest Grass-Cast Forecast: May 28th

On May 28th, the latest Grass-Cast forecast maps were released (below). As was discussed in Livestock Wx’s article this week on the Grass-Cast system (In its Second Year Grass-Cast Continues to Improve: See What’s New in 2019) the grass production forecast maps are based on the June-July-August Precipitation Seasonal Outlook released by NOAA on May 16th. (map at right)

May 28 Grass-Cast Forecasts

The precipitation seasonal outlook from NOAA indicates the odds are tilted in favor of a wet, or above-average June-July-August for most of the Great Plains. Most of Wyoming, and parts of Nebraska, and Colorado have the highest odds of a wet summer. As a result, the Grass-Cast Forecast is favoring an Above-Normal Precip scenario (left map above) which could translate in forage production across the Great Plains of 15-30%, or more, above what would normally be produced (based on production estimates averaged between 1981-2018) by the end of August.

What does above -average precipitation mean, though, and how does it compare to annual forage production? We break this down below in the hope that you can track precipitation in your area and how that fits in with what you would normally receive based on the last 30-years of precipitation information.

Interpreting the Forecast: Forage Production VS Average Summer Precipitation

The below interactive charts show average forage production in lbs/acre/yr compared to the total amount of precipitation (averaged from 1981-2010) for each county the Grass-Cast Forecast covers. Use your mouse to see individual values for your specific county. Knowing average precipitation totals for summer will help interpret NOAA’s Seasonal Outlook and just what Above-Normal (i.e. average) means. For example, Woodward County in Oklahoma normally receives over 8″ of rainfall during the summer and has an estimated average forage production of over 1,300 lbs/acre/yr. This year Grass-Cast is forecasting a 30% increase, or about 1,700 lbs/acre/yr.

The question, though, is will Woodward actually get “Above-Average” or greater than 8″ of rainfall this summer?

Precipitation Tracker: June Precipitation to Date VS Summer Average

The below interactive chart shows how much precipitation has been observed in the first few days of June (actually goes from May 28-June 4th) vs how that corresponds to what is expected for the entire summer (middle chart). The third chart shows the percentage of cattle in each county by that state’s total number of cattle. Using Woodward Oklahoma as the example again, they have already received about 1.5″ of rainfall in the last few days. Not bad at all and a great start to the summer.

Let’s hope NOAA got their Outlook right and that we will continue to have good summer precipitation. Of course for those areas that have been flooding, we hope it comes a little at a time!

Chad McNutt

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May 31, 2019

May 31-June 14 Forecasts and Other Analytics

15-Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast

Above-normal temperatures are most likely over most of the East Coast, parts of the Midwest, and the Northern Plains. Parts of of California and western Arizona will also likely see above-normal temperatures.

15-Day Accumulated Precipitation (in) Forecast

Southerly moisture flow over the next 6-10 days from the Tropics could lead to above-normal precipitation over parts of the Great Plains, the Central and Lower Mississippi Valley, the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, and the Southeast. Enhanced probabilities of below normal precipitation are indicated on the west side of a predicted trough from the eastern Great Lakes region into the Northeast.

CATTLE DENSITIES & the 15-Day Temperature and Precipitation Forecasts

15-Day Temp-Precip Forecast for the 12 Major Feeder Cattle-Producing States

With the exception of New Mexico, the major feeder cattle-producing states will see state-wide temperatures above normal normal over the next couple of weeks. ND and SD will see the largest departures of four-degrees (F). TX, OK, KS, and MO will see statewide average rainfall accumulations of 2″ or more of rainfall.

Drought & CME Feeder-Cattle Index

This week we have a new analytic that shows the CME Feeder-Cattle Index against the percentage of drought based on the U.S. Drought Monitor across the 12-State Feeder-Cattle region. The data in the below chart go from 2013-present. The CME Feeder-Index shows the 7-day weighted average price (cwt).

You can interact with the chart by using your mouse to see the data for specific dates. Click on the bars to see a breakdown of the 12-states on the map at right.

There are of course many things that can influence the Feeder-Cattle Index and drought is just one of them. We don’t necessarily see a trend (other than following the massive drought in the Southern Plains from 2011-2015) but we thought it was still interesting to see the data and play around with the chart. Hope you enjoy it too!

Chad McNutt

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May 31, 2019

By the N#mbers for the Week of June 3, 2019: More rain for TX and OK but a break for the Midwest

20% increase in two-weeks

The percentage increase in corn futures from early May and to present. Futures have been trading between $3.50 to $4 per bushel for several years, however, flooding in the Corn Belt has raised concerns about poor yields and lost corn acres. December corn futures have gone from $3.72 in early May to $4.35 as of May 29. [Capital Press]

28 head

“I’ve stayed awake at night worrying about them cows down there because I knew some of them were still alive, and there was no way to get them.” Larry Washom, a rancher in Oklahoma, discussing the 28 head of cattle he lost in the recent Oklahoma flooding. We feel for you Mr. Washom. Parts of central and northeast Oklahoma have received close to 20” of rainfall over the last 30-days. The 30-Day Rainfall Accumulation map from the Oklahoma Mesonet tells the story. [quote from News on 6 in Tulsa, OK]

7-day rainfall forecast: good news and bad news

The persistent Southwest jet stream that produced the widespread severe weather and heavy rain is finally shifting. This shift in the jet stream should help reduce rainfall over the Upper Mississippi — at least over the next week, which should help the major flooding in the Mississippi, the Lower Missouri, and Arkansas River Basins. Parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Arkansas, and Louisiana, however, could continue to receive very heavy rain and a high risk for flooding. Models are showing the focus for the heaviest rain over the next week could persist over the South-Central U.S.

90-degree days…an interesting number

The impending heat of summer means the start of 90-degree days for some; for others like Texas and Oklahoma and parts of the Southeast, it’s the continuation of the heat that’s already started. Although June 21 is considered by many to be the start of summer (with the occurrence of the summer solstice), meteorologists and climatologists consider the beginning of June to be the beginning of summer. Why is that you might be asking? Well, the first of June is when you start seeing those 90-degree days start to pop up across the country. Why is that important? 90-degrees is a pretty important metric for determining how “hot” a location is. At 90-degrees, you can start seeing things like heat-stress to vegetation, people and animals. If you would like to see how this works out and for who, we have provided a couple of maps. One that shows the places that first see 90-degree days in June and those that get to enjoy hot temperatures before everyone else. You probably can guess where they are. There is a pretty nice line around Interstate-10 from southern California all the way to Florida, showing the many places that have observed more than ten 90-degree days. Some of these hot days have even extended north into the High Plains and the Midwest. While this is very exciting for us here at Livestock Wx to think about, there is probably a fine line between painful elaboration of the obvious and interesting weather and climate stats. Sometimes we might cross that line

Chad McNutt

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May 30, 2019

Drought Trending for Pacific NW and the Southeast

[Excerpt from the May 28th U.S. Drought Monitor]

During this U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) week, a strong high pressure ridge was anchored over the southeastern contiguous U.S. (CONUS) while an upper-level trough dominated the West. This pattern set up a southwesterly flow across the central part of the country, which funneled moist and unstable air from the Gulf of Mexico into the Plains. Pacific weather systems moving in the jet stream flow plunged into the western trough, bringing precipitation and cooler-than-normal temperatures to much of the country from the Rockies westward.

The weather systems intensified as they moved into the Plains, triggering another week of severe weather and heavy flooding rains. Two or more inches of precipitation occurred across the Plains to Midwest and in upslope areas of Montana and Wyoming, with locally 5 inches or more. Weekly precipitation was wetter than normal across much of the Southwest, and from much of the Great Plains to Great Lakes. Half an inch to locally 2 inches was observed from the central Appalachians to New England, but these amounts were mostly below normal. The week ended up drier than normal across western Washington, northern Idaho and northern Montana, southern Arizona, most of New Mexico, and central to southern Texas. The subtropical high kept the Southeast drier and warmer than normal, with record high temperatures reported.

As a result of this weather pattern, drought contracted in Oregon, Wyoming, and the central Plains, but expanded in the northern Rockies, Texas, the Tennessee Valley, and the Southeast.

The percentage of cattle, corn, and hay in drought continues to remain low at 1% cattle, 1% hay, and no corn areas considered in drought.

1% Cattle in Drought

1% Hay in Drought

Most recent (May 28th) U.S. Drought Monitor showing areas in Abnormally Dry (yellow) or Drought (orange). Counties in blue have 50K head of cattle or great, while counties in green produce 40K tons of hay or greater.

Interactive chart showing cattle, hay, and corn areas in drought since 2011. Mouse over the chart to see individual years.

Drought & CME Feeder-Cattle Index

You can interact with the chart by using your mouse to see the data for specific dates. Click on the bars to see a breakdown of the 12-states on the map at right.

Potential Areas of Drought Improvement and Deterioration

The below maps show the 15-Day Accumulated Precipitation, Temperature Anomaly and the 15-Day Potential Evapotranspiration Forecasts. Potential Evaportranspiration, or PET, is the amount of evaporation that would occur if sufficient water is available. Basically, you can think about it as the amount of water that could be evaporated from the soils and plants (if water was not limited, which is why it has “Potential” in the title).

The Southern Plains/Central U.S. will see some rainfall in the next two-weeks. The largest totals could be close 4″ in Oklahoma and Kansas…places that don’t need it. Temperatures will mostly be above-normal for the Contiguous U.S. The highest departures will be in the Northern Plains. Potential evapotranspiration rates will also be highest in the Northern Plains.

We could see some drought deterioration in the Southeast and the Pacific Northwest. Washington state continues to see Moderate Drought for about 43% of the state. Yakima, Kittitas, and the surrounding counties in Washington in particular could see drought deterioration over the next couple of weeks.

Chad McNutt

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May 17, 2019

By the N#mbers for the Week of May 20, 2019: A Cool Summer and the Corn Belt Can’t Catch a Break

Livestock WX

By the N#mbers for the Week of May 20, 2019: A Cool Summer and the Corn Belt Can’t Catch a Break

21 inches of rainfall

Over the last 30-days, parts of Marion County, Texas received over 21” of rainfall according to NOAA’s precipitation analysis tool. Most of that was over the Land O’ the Pines reservoir. For those interested in percentages, that’s about 540% (17” above normal) of what would normally be received between April and May.

33% probability of temperatures being below normal this summer?

It’s hard to believe, but there is a chance temperatures this summer could be below normal. The recent trend has been for hotter summers over most of the U.S. but with the release of NOAA’s Seasonal Outlooks yesterday, they are calling for a tilt in the odds for temperatures t be below normal for a large portion of the U.S. The NOAA outlook expects current high soil moisture over the middle of the nation to hold temperatures in check well into the summer. In addition, upper soil moisture will be transported into the lower atmosphere via evapotranspiration thereby enhancing chances for summertime thunderstorms.

33% probability of rainfall being above normal this summer

The same NOAA Seasonal Outlook is also calling for a tilt in the odds of above normal rainfall over Texas and Oklahoma, and most of the Contiguous U.S., through the summer. Not exactly welcome news for many locations that are seeing saturated soils, standing water and have experienced major flooding.

3”-5” of additional rainfall over parts of the Corn Belt

Over the next 7-days 3”-5” of rainfall will fall in parts of the Corn Belt that have already received 5”-15” over the last 30-days. With planting already behind this will make catching up even more difficult. The line of the heaviest rainfall will extend from southcentral Kansas up through Topeka, Des Moines, Iowa and into Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Chad McNutt

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May 10, 2019

15-Day Temp & Precip Forecasts: May 10-May 24

Temperature Anomaly Forecast: May 10-May 24

Accumulated Precipitation (in) Forecast: May 10-May 24

CATTLE DENSITIES & the 15-Day Temperature and Precipitation Forecasts: May 10-May 24

Large numbers (scaled circles) of cattle in the Central Plains will see COLDER (blue) and WETTER (green) than normal temperatures over the next 15-days.

Chad McNutt

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May 10, 2019

By the N#mbers for the Week of May 13, 2019: Focusing on the Positive for TX and OK

124th out of 124 years

The Low Rolling Plains Climate Division (note Climate Divisions are a NOAA designation and track long-term climate trends), which extends from just south of Canadian, TX down to around Coleman, TX witnessed its wettest Oct-Apr period on record. That’s 7.5” of precipitation above average and is the highest total for that time period since 1895, or 124 years. As many know, this is significant since the Rolling Plains seems often to be the epicenter of drought in the Southern Plains.

East TX has received in excess of 40” between Oct-Apr, which is about 13” over its average (8^th wettest on record). Our thoughts and prayers are with all those struggling with the massive amount of rain and flooding they received over the last several weeks.

0% Drought

As we said in the title, we’re trying to look for the good news. With the release of this week’s U.S. Drought Monitor, Texas finds itself drought free for the first time since July 2016. Oklahoma has been drought free since the first of the year. With the exception of South Texas and the Lower Rio Grande Valley, all of Texas and Oklahoma have seen precipitation totals way above average for the 2019 Water Year (Oct 2018-Sept 2019).

70% summer, 55-60% chance through fall

The probability El Niño will continue through the summer and fall. The majority of the climate models used to predict El Niño/La Niña events are mostly in agreement it will likely persist through 2019. We know, this is the opposite of looking for the good news, but we thought you should know. For those that are interested in the details of the El Niño forecast, NOAA has a good story over at its ENSO Blog.

130% of average greenness

Over the last 30-days, satellite estimates of the density of “greenness” are confirming vegetation is responding to the wet year we have observed. A significant part of Texas is seeing much higher densities of greening vegetation than what would normally be expected for this time of year (image below). The Panhandle down to West Texas are seeing greenness percentages 125% to 130% of average. The good moisture and warming conditions have grass growing rapidly and should result in solid grazing this year.

Chad McNutt

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May 9, 2019

By the N#mbers for the Week of May 6, 2019: Rain Just Keeps Coming

$1 billion in damages with lost cattle and property damage

The amount of damage caused by natural disasters this winter and spring in Nebraska. It’s an understatement to say it’s been a difficult winter and spring for cattle producers there. To show support for cattle producers Governor Pete Ricketts declared May as Beef Month in Nebraska. [The Grand Island Independent]

6” rainfall last 7-days…..5” rainfall over the next 7

The amount of rainfall Atoka, Pushmataha, Coal, and Johnston Counties in Southeast Oklahoma received over the last week and the amount they are expected to get over the next week. If you’re counting that could be 11-12” or more of precipitation in two weeks. The average precipitation for April and May is about 11”. That shouldn’t be a problem.

51 days since significant rainfall has fallen

With all this rainfall could anyone be dry? Well, the folks out in The Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle could answer that question. It has been 51 days since parts of Texas and Cimarron Counties in Oklahoma have received a quarter inch or more of rainfall. Over the next week this streak could be broken as the Panhandle could see a half-inch or more of rainfall. Fingers crossed.

15 percent of the corn crop had been planted by April 28

The five-year average is 27%. Extremely wet soils and continued precipitation has caused planting delays across the Corn Belt. The period between September 2018 and March 2019 has been the wettest 7-month period for the Midwest on record. The 7-day Accumulated Precipitation Forecast for the Midwest is not helping the situation and will likely delay planting to mid-May. If conditions don’t improve, we could see a reduction in acres plated or lower yields. [Reuters]

Chad McNutt

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