Water Year Update: Winners and Losers…So Far

Water Year Update: Winners and Losers…So Far

Here at Livestock Wx we thought it would be good to do a check-in on how the 2020 Water Year is looking so far and who the early winners and losers in terms of precipitation.  Please note, however, that just like not enough precipitation is problematic, too much of it can be just as bad if not worse.

So far, there are some clear “winners” so far and that includes most of the eastern half of the country while parts of Texas and the West could be considered in the “loser” or not enough moisture category.  Some places like the Pacific Northwest have had a very strong last couple of months so we expect parts of that area to come back somewhat.

NMME Outlooks for Mar-Apr-May

NMME Outlooks for Mar-Apr-May

The North American Multi-Model Ensemble forecast, or NMME, was released this week.  The NMME is a collaboration of the National Weather Service and several university partners to produce a consensus seasonal forecast using a suite of different climate models.

The models are indicating pretty good odds for above average temperatures (see temperature map below: orange-dark orange equals higher odds of above normal temperatures) in the March-April-May timeframe and a minor tilt in the odds for less-than average precipitation in New Mexico, Far West Texas, and the Panhandle (see precipitation map below: green colors equals higher odds of above normal precipitation).  The eastern half of the county as well as parts of the Northern Plains/Midwest have an increased chance of above normal precipitation potentially adding to what has been a fairly wet year.

NOAA will release its official outlooks for March-April-May next Thursday (Feb. 20th).  Since they utilize the NMME models in their official forecast consider this a sneak preview.

Temperature Forecast

Precipitation Forecast

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