- John Feldt
- May 17, 2019
- 7:51 am
June Temperature Outlook
NOAA just updated the temperature and rainfall outlooks for June and the 3-month summer period.
June Temperature Outlook
Blue = Colder Than Normal
Brown = Warmer Than Normal
June - July - August Temperature Outlook
Blue = Colder Than Normal
Brown = Warmer Than Normal
June Rainfall Outlook
Green = Wetter Than Normal
Brown = Drier Than Normal
June - July - August Rainfall Outlook
Green = Wetter Than Normal
Brown = Drier Than Normal
Science Behind The Forecast
There are a number of factors influencing the 1- and 3-month outlooks. These include: Residual High Soil Moisture (below). The NOAA outlook expects current high soil moisture over the middle of the nation to hold temperatures in check well into the summer. In addition, upper soil moisture will be transported into the lower atmosphere via evapotranspiration thereby enhancing chances for summertime thunderstorms.
Trends
Trends: Research indicates summers are getting hotter across most of the U.S.
Climate Models:
Outlooks, especially later in the forecast period, align closely with long-lead climate models, especially the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME).
El Niño and other teleconnections:
Models indicate a weak to borderline-moderate El Niño through the summer months. In addition, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is expected in influence weather patterns in June.