Drought Trends for May 7, 2019: Texas Drought Free

Drought Trends for May 7, 2019: Texas Drought Free

[Excerpt from the May 7th U.S. Drought Monitor]

A large portion of the lower 48 states remains free of drought or abnormal dryness this week, including the entire Northeast and Midwest regions. Moderate drought coverage shifted in Georgia in response to precipitation patterns over the past week. Areas of short-term moderate drought were removed in Texas, where widespread moderate to heavy precipitation fell [NOTE this is the first time Texas has been drought free since July 2016].

Severe drought in northwest New Mexico was reduced in coverage because of improved short-term conditions, though some long-term precipitation deficits remain in the area. Moderate drought was added in western Washington because of worsening short- and long-term precipitation deficits and low streamflow.

The percentage of cattle, corn, and hay in drought continues to remain low at 1% cattle, 1% hay, and no corn areas considered in drought.

1% Cattle in Drought

1% Hay in Drought

Most recent (May 7th) U.S. Drought Monitor showing areas in Abnormally Dry (yellow) or Drought (orange).  Counties in blue have 50K head of cattle or great, while counties in green produce 40K tons of hay or greater.

Interactive chart showing cattle, hay, and corn areas in drought since 2011. The data are ranked from highest to lowest in drought. Mouse over the chart to see individual years.

Plot 40

Potential Areas of Drought Improvement and Deterioration

The below images show the U.S. Drought Monitor from May 7th and the 15-Day Accumulated Precipitation, Temperature Anomaly and the 15-Day Potential Evapotranspiration Forecasts.  Potential Evaportranspiration, or PET, is the amount of evaporation that would occur if sufficient water is available.  Basically, you can think about it as the amount of water that could be evaporated from the soils and plants (if water was not limited, which is why it has “Potential” in the title).

Widespread rain is forecast to continue over the next several days over parts of the south-central United States. The highest rainfall amounts are forecast to occur in southeast Texas and into Arkansas, and Louisiana. New Mexico should also see some decent moisture in areas that are still experiencing drought. Moderate precipitation amounts are predicted to fall across much of the Northeast and the Upper Midwest. Dry weather is forecast in the Pacific Northwest. Primarily warm weather is forecast in the Northwest, while much of the Plains is expected to be cooler than normal, with moderating temperatures expected early next week.

We should continue to see very minor drought for most of the U.S.  The exception being the Pacific Northwest.  Most other areas where drought still persist should continue to decline over the next 15-days.

May 7th U.S. Drought Monitor

Counties shaded in purple have cattle densities of 50K head or more. The percentage of the Contiguous U.S. continues to stay extremely low. At present 2.5% remains in drought.

Precipitation and Temperature Forecasts

15-Day accumulated precipitation forecast (green/brown) and the Temperature Anomaly (orange/blue) compared to the 15-Day Potential Evapotranspiration Forecast (red/blue-gray) for the period of May 10 – May 24. Use your mouse to see data for individual counties.

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Drought Trends for April 30, 2019: The Drought Dry Spell Marches On

Drought Trends for April 30, 2019: The Drought Dry Spell Marches On

[Excerpt from the April 30th U.S. Drought Monitor]

An active weather pattern maintained historically low drought coverage across the contiguous United States, with only a few areas currently experiencing dryness (D0) or moderate to severe drought (D1 to D2). Prior to April 2019, the record-low drought coverage across the Lower 48 States during the 20-year history of the U.S. Drought Monitor stood at 4.52% on May 23, 2017. During the drought-monitoring period ending on the morning of April 30, locally significant precipitation fell in dryness- and drought-affected areas across the Rockies, Intermountain West, northern Plains, and parts of the South. In contrast, little or no precipitation fell in the Far West and the southern Atlantic region.

The percentage of cattle, corn, and hay in drought continues to remain low at 1% cattle, 1% hay, and no corn areas considered in drought.

1% Cattle in Drought

1% Hay in Drought

Most recent (April 30th) U.S. Drought Monitor showing areas in Abnormally Dry (yellow) or Drought (orange).  Counties in blue have 50K head of cattle or great, while counties in green produce 40K tons of hay or greater.

Interactive chart showing cattle, hay, and corn areas in drought since 2011. The data are ranked from highest to lowest in drought. Mouse over the chart to see individual years.

Plot 40

Potential Areas of Drought Improvement and Deterioration

The below images show the U.S. Drought Monitor from April 30th and the 15-Day Accumulated Precipitation, Temperature Anomaly and the 15-Day Potential Evapotranspiration Forecasts.  Potential Evaportranspiration, or PET, is the amount of evaporation that would occur if sufficient water is available.  Basically, you can think about it as the amount of water that could be evaporated from the soils and plants (if water was not limited, which is why it has “Potential” in the title).

The wet pattern will continue for Much of the Contiguous U.S. over the next 15 days.  Evaporation rates will be highest over the Pacific Northwest and less intense in Far West and South Texas.

We should continue to see very minor drought for most of the U.S.  We are watching, however, the OK Panhandle, Far West Texas down to South Texas and the Southeast U.S.  For the Southeast, evaporation rates over the next 15 days are expected to be below normal and the accumulated rainfall over this time period should see them about break even.  Therefore, we do not see a significant increase in drought over the next 15-days there.

April 23, 2019 U.S. Drought Monitor. Counties shaded in purple have cattle densities of 50K head or more.

15-Day Forecasts for precipitation (in.) and potential evapotranspiration (in.) The forecasts cover the period from May 2-May 16, 2019.

15-Day accumulated precipitation forecast (green/brown) and the Temperature Anomaly (orange/blue)compared to the 15-Day Potential Evapotranspiration Forecast (red/gray) for the period of May 2 – May 16. Use your mouse to see data for individual counties.

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7-Day Temp & Precip Forecasts: Apr 27-May 03

7-Day Temp & Precip Forecasts: Apr 27-May 03

Temperature Anomaly Forecast: Apr 27-May 03

Accumulated Precipitation (in) Forecast: Apr 27-May 03

CATTLE DENSITIES & the 7-Day Temperature and Precipitation Forecasts: Apr 27-May 03

Similar to the winter and spring trend, large numbers (scaled circles) of cattle in the Central Plains will see COLDER (blue) and WETTER (green) than normal temperatures over the next 7-days.

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By the Numbers for the Week of April 29, 2019: More Rain & Severe Weather for Texas and Oklahoma

By the N#mbers

By the N#mbers for the Week of April 29, 2019: More Rain & Severe Weather for Texas and Oklahoma

  • 3”-6” rainfall over the last week

    The amount of rainfall resulting from the slow-moving storm that traveled across Texas this week. The storm has brought widespread damage from large hail, 70 mph winds across Dallas, and tornado warnings across the state. The below image shows rainfall over the last 7-days. Many areas saw up to 5” of rainfall. Some of these areas were looking somewhat dry but should be back in the plus category after this week.

  • 5”-7” rainfall possible over the next week

    It’s not over yet. Over the next week North Texas and into northeast Oklahoma could see large amounts of rainfall-upwards of 5-7” and local flooding. Accompanying the rain could be more severe weather. Stay safe and stay alert out there over the next week.

  • 1-800-691-4336

    The number for the Farmer’s Stress Hotline. The Hotline has seen an increase in the number of calls after multiple weather events hit the Midwest this winter and the spring. The calls have been coming from across the region and in particular Nebraska and Minnesota. The Farmer’s Stress Hotline is a free service offered by Avera Behavioral Health. The Hotline is aimed at connecting farmers and ranchers with mental health professionals. The service started in January. (SDPB Radio)

  • 10-15 lbs. below last year

    The decline in steer dressed weights from last year according to Justin Benavidez, assistant professor and Texas A&M AgriLife Extension economist. Benavides cited the cold and wet El Niño winter and spring in the Midwest, in part, drove the decline in dressed weights. “The poor weather in the Midwest and northern cattle feeding country had something to do with that [decline in steer dressed weights]. It costs more for gain, which led to a drop in dressed weight.” (High Plains Journal)

  • Drought kills about 64 000 hd of livestock

    The number of cattle, sheep, and goats killed over the last six months due to drought in the African country of Namibia. Just a reminder the difference between too much precipitation and drought is often a zero-sum game. When one area is seeing above average precipitation or even massive flooding like we saw in the Midwest, another area of the globe is dealing with extraordinary drought. (The Namibian)

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Drought Trends for April 23, 2019: Record Drought-Nada Continues​

Drought Trends for April 23, 2019: Record Drought-Nada Continues

[Excerpt from the April 23rd U.S. Drought Monitor]

Severe weather and substantial rainfall were observed in parts of the Southern Plains, lower Mississippi Valley, Southeast, and mid-Atlantic during April 17-19. Moderate to heavy precipitation (1.5-4 inches) also occurred over the western Great Lakes region, Tennessee and central Ohio Valleys, parts of New England, and northwestern Washington. Light to moderate precipitation (0.5-2 inches) was widespread in the Northwest, eastern Great Basin, northern and southern thirds of the Rockies, northern Plains, and the eastern third of the Nation. Only portions of the Southwest, central Rockies and Plains, and western Corn Belt saw little or no precipitation. Weekly temperatures averaged above-normal for much of the contiguous U.S. 

With near- to record wetness in many parts of the country this winter and in 2018, the April 16 USDM had the lowest percent of area in drought (D1-D4) for the lower 48 States (3.73%) and all 50 States (3.78%) since the inception of the U.S. Drought Monitor in 2000, surpassing the previous low drought standard of May 23, 2017. In fact, no dryness/drought (D0-D4) in both the lower 48 (85.88%) and all 50 States (87.06%) also set record low values last week. With more wet weather over D0-D2 areas this week, new USDM record lows will most-likely be set.

The percentage of cattle, corn, and hay in drought continues to remain low at 1% cattle, 1% hay, and no corn areas considered in drought.

1% Cattle in Drought

1% Hay in Drought

Most recent (April 23rd) U.S. Drought Monitor showing areas in Abnormally Dry (yellow) or Drought (orange).  Counties in purple have 50K head of cattle or great, while counties in green produce 40K tons of hay or greater.

Interactive chart showing cattle, hay, and corn areas in drought since 2011. The data are ranked from highest to lowest in drought. Mouse over the chart to see individual years.

Plot 40

Potential Areas of Drought Improvement and Deterioration

The below images show the current U.S. Drought Monitor and the 15-Accumulated Precipitation and 15-Day Potential Evapotranspiration Forecasts.  Potential Evaportranspiration, or PET, is the amount of evaporation that would occur if sufficient water is available.  Basically, you can think about it as the amount of water that could be evaporated from the soils and plants (if water was not limited, which is why it has “Potential” in the title).

Much of the Contiguous U.S. will see precipitation of an 1″ or greater over the next 15 days.  Evaporation rates will be highest over parts of Texas, the Southwest and the Southeast.  With the exception of New Mexico and possibly the Southeast, most areas currently considered Abnormally Dry or in Drought will see some decent precipitation over the next couple of weeks.  At least into early May, we do not see much potential for the record low drought percentage to reverse course.  New Mexico and Georgia/South Carolina could see some expansion and may be the only exceptions at this point.

April 23, 2019 U.S. Drought Monitor. Counties shaded in purple have cattle densities of 50K head or more.

15-Day Forecasts for precipitation (in.) and potential evapotranspiration (in.) The forecasts cover the period from April 26-May 10, 2019.

15-Day accumulated precipitation forecast (green/brown) compared to the 15-Day Potential Evapotranspiration Forecast (red/gray) for the period of Apr 26 – May 10. The third map shows areas in drought (bubble size) and the expected precipitation over the next 15 days. Many areas currently considered Abnormally Dry or in drought are expected to see some precipitation over the next couple of weeks. Use your mouse to see data for individual counties.

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By the Numbers for the Week of April 22, 2019

By the N#mbers

By the N#mbers for the Week of April 22, 2019: May-June-July Seasonal Outlooks

  • 33%-40% Chance of Below Normal Temperatures

    On Thursday, April 18, NOAA released its Seasonal Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks. The Outlooks cover May-June-July, or as is said in the biz, “MJJ”. Temperatures are expected to be cooler than normal over the Southern Plains, whereas the rest of the nation is expected to be warmer than normal. The Outlooks are keying on climatological patterns observed during El Niño years, which is partly why they are showing below normal temps from Nebraska down to Texas.

May-June-July Temperature Outlook
  • 40%-50% Chance of Above Normal Rainfall

    Just like the Outlook for Temperature, expectations for precipitation are mostly aligned with what we normally expect during an El Niño. Over the next three-months lookout for above-normal rainfall over most of the country. The enhanced outlooks for rainfall are also associated with current positive (wet) soil moisture anomalies over the Plains. It will be interesting if the percentage of drought continues to decline across the U.S. As many know, the summer is usually when it ramps up so it should be an interesting next three-months.

May-June-July Precipitation Outlook
  • 3% Decline in March Cattle Marketings

    The April Cattle on Feed report shows 1.78 million head of cattle were marketed in March, a 3% decline of marketings compared to 2018 numbers. It’s easy to see how the colder than normal temperatures combined with above average precipitation in major cattle feeding locations could’ve have put a damper on March marketing numbers.

  • Top 100

    Looking at the most recent climate rankings, many regions around Texas were inside the top 100 years (Remember these rankings consider the last 125 years) for precipitation for the period of October through March. The TX High Plains (includes the Panhandle) was the 104th wettest, the Low Rolling Plains 113th, North Central was 119th, the Trans Pecos was 100th, and the Edwards Plateau was 113th. That explains how we were looking dry way back in December-January in the Panhandle and surrounding areas and then all of a sudden, the drought was gone, and South Texas took it over.

  • 3% Drought and on the Decline?

    The U.S. drought area continues to take a pounding. This week, just like last week, set a record for the lowest percentage of the Contiguous U.S. in drought at just a little over 3%. We’re rooting for something south of 1% but we’re also mindful many areas don’t need any more precipitation and are looking forward to planting and turning out their cattle.

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7-Day Temp & Precip Forecasts

7-Day Temp & Precip Forecasts

Temperature Anomaly Forecast: April 19-April 25

Accumulated Precipitation (in) Forecast: April 19-April 25

CATTLE DENSITIES & the 7-Day Temperature and Precipitation Forecasts: April 19-April 25

Large numbers (scaled circles) of cattle in the Central Plains will see COLDER (blue) and WETTER (green) than normal temperatures over the next 7-days.

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Drought Trends for April 16, 2019: Could see some Dryness Creep in around Southwest and Southeast U.S.

Drought Trends for April 16, 2019: Parts of the Southwest and Southeast Could See Drought Expansion Over the Next 15-Days

Two rapidly-moving strong storm systems brought severe weather and widespread precipitation to a good portion of the country.  Widespread rainfall and snow fell across Idaho, Montana, northeastern Nevada, Utah, and Wyoming. South Dakota observed very heavy snow of over 2ft. in some places. Moderate to heavy snows also blanketed Minnesota, Wisconsin, northern Michigan, and northern Illinois. In the Plains, moderate to heavy rains (1-3 inches) were measured in portion of Oklahoma and Texas, which then moved into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. 

Very little precipitation fell on most of the Southwest.  For the Plain: the southern, central, and extreme northern Plains saw very little precipitation. Temperatures were mostly below-normal in the western two-thirds of the U.S., especially in the northern Plains and upper Midwest (6 to 12 degrees Fahrenheit below normal), and above-normal in the eastern third of the Nation (6 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit above normal).

For the contiguous U.S., drought decreased by about one percentage point.  There was a slight expansion of Abnormally Dry conditions in the Texas Coastal Plain, North Florida, and South Carolina.

1% Cattle in Drought

1% Hay in Drought

The percentage of corn, cattle, and hay that are considered in drought continues to decline.  This week finds 1% of cattle, 1% of hay, and 0% of corn in drought.  These percentages continue to be the lowest for all three since these stats started to be tracked in 2011.

Interactive chart showing cattle, hay, and corn areas in drought since 2011. The data are ranked from highest to lowest in drought. Mouse over the chart to see individual years.

Plot 40

Potential Areas of Drought Improvement and Deterioration

The below images show the current U.S. Drought Monitor and the 15-Accumulated Precipitation and 15-Day Potential Evapotranspiration Forecasts.  Potential Evaportranspiration, or PET, is the amount of evaporation that would occur if sufficient water is available.  Basically, you can think about it as the amount of water that could be evaporated from the soils and plants (if water was not limited, which is why it has “Potential” in the title).

The central to eastern portion of the U.S. will continue to see precipitation over the next 15-days.  Areas that could receive little precipitation and see high PET rates over the next 15-days are southern Georgia/northern Florida, and parts of the Southwest U.S.  These areas could see drought start to creep in or at least you might start see an expansion of yellows and oranges for these areas on the U.S. Drought Monitor.

April 6, 2019 U.S. Drought Monitor. Counties shaded in purple have cattle densities of 50K head or more.

15-Day accumulated precipitation forecast (green/brown) compared to the 15-Day Potential Evapotranspiration Forecast (red/gray) for the period of Apr 20 - May 04. Use your mouse to see data for individual counties.

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By the Numbers for the Week of April 15, 2019

By the N#mbers

By the Numbers for the Week of April 15, 2019

  • 50/50 or Part of West TX Blew Away on Wednesday

    On Wednesday (April 10), strong winds and blowing dust caused numerous crashes around Lubbock. Wind speeds of 40 to 50 mph and gusts over 70 mph were observed. Coupled with low humidity and temperatures in the low 90s, made for extreme conditions and resulted in a red flag warning being issued by the National Weather Service. In Wyoming they call days where the wind speed approaches the high temperature 50/50 days, meaning 50 degrees for the high (that’s warm in Wyoming) and 50mph winds (also mild for Wyoming). Over the next week, conditions should be relatively mild over most of TX and OK, however, mild temperatures are usually accompanied by rainfall and there should be a lot of it (see below) over the next week. The exception to all this will be Far West TX, which is expected to see above average temperatures and little to no rainfall.

  • 7-Day Rainfall

    Several soaking-rain systems will hit the South-Central U.S. over the next week. The first will arrive this weekend with another later next week. This will result in extremely heavy rain and the prospects for flooding. A large portion of TX and OK could see 2 or more inches of rainfall.

  • March Temperature and Precipitation Rankings

    NOAA released its temperature and precipitation rankings for March this week. The Edwards Plateau, the Rolling Plains, Southwest OK and into Northeast OK all saw below-average temperatures for the month. For precipitation, the big winner was the TX/OK Panhandle, which came in as the 103rd and 102nd (respectively) wettest March on record (out of 125 years). If you’re interested that’s worth about 1.4”of precipitation for the TX side and about 2” of precipitation for OK.

  • U.S. Drought Continues to Decline: Lowest percentage of the U.S. in drought ever reported by the Drought Monitor

    This week, the U.S. Drought Monitor reporter a little over 4% of the Contiguous U.S. in drought. That is lowest percentage since the Drought Monitor stared in 2000 and just beat out May 23, 2017 for the title. TX saw a decrease of about four percentage points considered in drought from last week while no area in OK was in drought. This is good news but we are just starting to see warmer temperatures and getting into the growing season so this is likely the lowest we will see for some time. Areas to watch going forward will be Central TX, South TX along the border, and Far West TX.

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Drought Trends for April 9, 2019

Drought Trends for April 9, 2019

Late March was extremely wet, and so far, early April has continued that trend.  The April 11th release of the U.S. Drought Monitor set a record for the lowest percentage of drought since the Drought Monitor started in 2000. 

So far in April, we have seen improvements in the Pacific Northwest and local flooding in areas that had been only recently considered in drought. The South and Southeast have been going in and out of drought but we think this will improve over the next couple of weeks (see below on the 15-day forecast). Locally heavy rainfall brought improvements to parts of South Texas, Louisiana, and the Carolinas.  The rest of the U.S. remains largely free of drought and abnormal dryness.

Cattle in Drought
0 %
Hay in Drought
0 %

The percentage of corn, cattle, and hay that are considered in drought continues to stay low.  This week finds 2% of cattle, 2% of hay, and 0% of corn in drought.

Interactive chart showing cattle, hay, and corn areas in drought since 2011. April 9th is tied for lowest percentage of cattle, hay, and corn in drought since stats started to be tracked.

Plot 40

Potential Areas of Drought Improvement and Deterioration

The below images show the current U.S. Drought Monitor and the 15-Accumulated Precipitation Forecast.  The eastern half of the U.S. could be very wet over the next two-weeks and could see large improvements in the areas considered in drought.  Drought deterioration could be seen in South and West Texas along with parts of New Mexico.

April 9, 2019 U.S. Drought Monitor.  Counties shaded in purple have cattle densities of 50K head or more.

15-Day Accumulated Precipitation Forecast.

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