Week 1 and Week 2 Forecasts: Hot Wx Trend Expected to Continue in the South

A ridge of high pressure is expected to setup over the west central U.S. most likley leading to above-normal temperatures over much of the southern tier of the country.
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Temperature Anomaly Forecasts

In Week 1, a ridge of high pressure is expected to setup over the west central U.S. while a trough will settle in over the eastern U.S.  Above-normal temperatures are expected over eastern Arizona, southern Colorado, southwestern Kansas, the Southern Plains, and parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley, due to the anomalous ridge. Troughing along the West Coast of the will lead to a higher chance of below-normal temperatures over parts of Oregon, Northern California, and Nevada.

Above normal temperatures are likely for the Gulf Coast, the Florida Peninsula, and the southern East Coast, while below normal temperatures are favored over parts of the Northern Great Basin, the Northern Rockies, the Northern and Central Plains, the Upper and Middle Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, the Ohio Valley, the Tennessee Valley, the Middle Atlantic, and the Northeast.

In Week-2, below-normal temperatures are expected across much of the northern tier of the U.S. due to an expected trough. A ridge of high pressure, however, could lead to enhanced odds of of above-normal temperature over most of the southern tier and the West Coast.  The highest odds of above-normal temperatures are expected across South Texas and southern Florida.  The temperature forecast maps below show the average temperature forecast as well as the departure from average for Week 1 and Week 2.

Precipitation Anomaly Forecasts

Week 1 precipitation will see good monsoon activity, which will could lead to favorable odds of above-normal precipitation from southeastern Arizona and New Mexico northeastward to much of the Great Basin and Rockies.  Above-normal precipitation is also likely to extend from the Pacific Northwest eastward to the Great Plains, parts of the Upper and Middle Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, and the Ohio Valley.

The odds of below-normal precipitation are favorable over areas that have seen a recent drying, namely Texas and Oklahoma.  Parts of Nevada, southwestern Utah, northwestern Arizona, and the Southeast U.S. are also expected to see below-normal precipitation.

In Week 2, the Pacific Northwest is expected to see good odds of above-normal precipitation.  This could extend into much of the Great Plains, the Mississippi Valley, and parts of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.  Near-normal to below-normal precipitation is expected over parts of the Southwest, the Central Great Basin, the Gulf Coast, and the East Coast.

Average Temperature Anomalies VS. Nighttime Temperature Forecast for Major Cattle Producing Counties*

*50K head or greater of cattle and calves

Over the next two weeks large cattle feeding counties in the Texas Panhandle could see higher average temperatures and higher nighttime temperatures (minimum temps).  These counties include: Castro, Parmer, and Deaf Smith.

These departures from average could be in the 2 to 3 degrees F above average.

The rest of the Great Plains should continue to see average to below average temperatures over this time period.

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