The latest Cattle on Feed report released September 20th, shows cattle and calves on feed totaled 11.0 million head on September 1, 2019. The inventory was 1% below September 1, 2018.
August placements totaled 1.88 million head, which was 9% below 2018.
The number of fed cattle marketed in August totaled 1.95 million, which was 2% below 2018.
In light of the latest report, we discuss weather trends going forward from September and how these trends could evolve through the month and for the first part of October. At the end of the article we also provide a review of temperature and precipitation trends from the summer.
Temperature trends from September 3rd to September 17th show (map below) cattle on feed in Kansas and parts of Missouri have experienced temperatures well above-normal (7 degrees or more above average). Nebraska, Iowa, and the Texas Panhandle also saw higher average temperatures but to a lesser extent.
When you break down temperatures and look at the minimum temperatures (map below) we see a large part of the cattle feeding region experienced much higher temperature departures for minimum or nighttime temperatures. For those cattle that experienced higher than normal average temperatures, higher minimum temperatures could cause some heat related stress affecting performance, at least for the first part of September.
Over the last 15-days, rainfall has been below normal for the Texas-Oklahoma Panhandle, Kansas, and parts of Nebraska. Iowa, Minnesota, and the Northern Plains, however, experienced rainfall well above average. The next seven days could see rainfall amounts of 5″ or more in these areas.
The 30-day departure from average temperature forecast shows most of the cattle on feed will see near-average temperatures for the rest of September and for the first part of October. The Texas-Oklahoma Panhandle, Kansas, and parts of Colorado could see temperatures slightly above normal.
While temperatures will be relatively moderate over the next 30-days, precipitation will be well above average for parts of the Midwest. Missouri, Iowa, and Illinois could see rainfall amounts 3″ or more above their normal average for September and October.
Over the next seven days (Sep 21-28th), these areas could see rainfall totals of 5″ or more. A small area between Kansas and Missouri could see between 7″ and 10″ of rainfall.