NOAA Aug-Sep-Oct Outlooks Are Out: Hot for Most and Wet for Some

The August-September-October (ASO) 2019 outlooks are showing above normal average temperatures are most likely for much of the West, Southern Plains and Southeast, and the Northeast. The odds of above normal precipitation are slightly enhanced for the High Plains and the Northern Plains.

The Outlooks reflect the weak El Niño that has remained in place through the spring and summer.  Several models are indicating it could transition to neutral conditions within the next two months, however.  The other variables that is driving the Outlooks is the excess amount of soil moisture that has remained from the astonishingly wet spring for many areas in the Central Plains and eastern U.S.

The below image shows the Temperature Outlook for Aug-Sep-Oct.  The western U.S. has fairly significant odds of seeing above average temperatures over the next three months.  Parts of the Central Plains and the Midwest are in the unenviable category of Equal Chances, which means you could probably flip a coin.

The below image cover the Precipitation Outlook for Aug-Sep-Oct Outlook.  Not too much of a signal for most of the country.  The exception is the Central and Northern Plains, and most likely reflects the feedback with the wet soils in that region.

The bottom line is that most of the country will see above average temperatures over the next three months.  That’s been the trend over the last couple of decades.  Precipitation is up in the air, so to speak, but where it doesn’t pan out expect to see some minor drought and possibly even some flash drought.  South Texas, the Pacific Northwest, and the wester part of Montana are expected to see intensifying drought over the Aug-Sep-Oct period.

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