Latest Outlook – A Mild Fall?

NMME model guidance consists of an ensemble, or average, of numerous government and university climate models. 

NMME guidance has just been updated. No doubt about it, NMME temperature guidance calls for above-normal readings through the rest of the year. However, more modest readings (closer to normal) could persist over the middle of the nation in October.

This could result in a later than normal fall freeze/frost allowing for a longer-than-normal growing season.

Oct-Nov-Dec Temperature Outlook

Orange/Brown = Above normal temperatures expected
Unshaded = Equal chances above, below, or normal temperatures
Blue = Below normal temperatures

October Temperature Outlook

November Temperature Outlook

December Temperature Outlook

Soil moisture is adequate for planting of winter wheat over a majority of the Plains. 

NMME guidance indicates a possible dry tendency in early fall, but overall, soil moisture should be adequate. 

One exception could be parts of Oklahoma and much of Texas where existing soil moisture deficits could worsen.

Oct-Nov-Dec Precipitation Outlook

Green = Above normal precipitation
Unshaded = Equal chances above, below, or normal precipitation
Brown = Below normal precipitation

October Precipitation Outlook

November Precipitation Outlook

December Precipitation Outlook