Latest Week 1 and Week 2 Forecasts: Change Ahead

A pattern change is expected by early August as a ridge aloft replaces an upper-level trough.
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Temperature Anomaly Forecasts

Above-normal temperatures are expected over the western and central U.S.  The Central and Southern Plains have the highest probabilities for above normal temperatures due to the strong ridge.

Above normal temperatures are also expected for the Southwest and Great Basin, albeit with lower probabilities due to the likelihood of enhanced monsoon rainfall.

Near to below normal temperatures are favored for a majority of the eastern U.S. due to the forecast troughing over the region.

In Week-2, below-normal temperatures are most likely across parts of the Northern Plains, the Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, and parts of the interior Northeast due to the forecast troughing.

Above normal temperatures are favored for parts of the Southeast and along the coastal eastern U.S. The amplifying ridge favors above normal temperatures across much of the western U.S. and the Central and Southern Great Plains. The Southern Plains have the highest odds for above normal temperatures.

Precipitation Anomaly Forecasts

A cold front is expected to progress east and will elevate the chances for above normal precipitation from the coastal mid-Atlantic to the Florida peninsula. In the wake of this front, below normal-precipitation is slightly favored  across parts of the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley. 

The strong ridge mentioned above will likely result in below normal precipitation across the south-central U.S. The Southwest and Great Basin, however, are expected to above-normal precipitation due to enhanced monsoonal activity. 

The Week-2 forecast also favors above-normal precipitation for the Southwest and Great Basin.  Enhanced odds of above-normal precipitation could extend eastward and included parts of the Central and Northern Plains.

Average Temperature Anomalies VS. Nighttime Temperature Forecast for Major Cattle Producing Counties*

*50K head or greater of cattle and calves

Over the next two weeks major cattle feeding counties in California could see higher average temperatures and nighttime temperatures (minimum temps).  These departures from average could be in the 3 to 5 degrees F above average.

The Great Plains should see average to below average temperatures over this time period.

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