Hurricane season officially started as of June 1st. However, statistics indicate that activity is usually low until later in the summer. (red-outlied box indicates past June activity).
Tropical development in June typically develops "close in" -- within the warmer waters of the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea.
Currently, there is a pool of higher ocean heat content within the Caribbean Sea extending into the Gulf of Mexico.
A broad area of low pressure is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity over the Bay of Campeche. This system is forecast to move northwest towards the northeastern coast of Mexico and could become a tropical cyclone before it moves inland.
Looking ahead, there are some signs that tropical moisture could be transported inland. The following image (below) depicts the transport of high moisture (as indicated by the dew point) from a tropical source inland. If this occurs, inland rainfall would be enhanced.
Ample atmospheric moisture, combined with a series of frontal boundaries, could point towards very heavy rainfall over the next week.