NOAA Updated Hurricane Outlook - An Active Season Ahead

More Favorable Conditions

NOAA just updated the outlook for the current tropical season. Forecasters note more-favorable conditions for above-normal activity. The number of predicted storms is slightly higher -- 10 to 17 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 5 to 9 will become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater), including 2 to 4 major hurricanes (winds 111 mph or greater).

End of El Nino


The primary reason for the uptick in forecast activity is the recent demise of El Niño. El Niño conditions tend to suppress development.

Looking Ahead


Considering the updated outlook and climatology (below), despite the fact that the tropics are quiet now -- action could increase later in the month.

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