June and Summer Outlooks

June Temperature Outlook

NOAA just updated the temperature and rainfall outlooks for June and the 3-month summer period.

June Temperature Outlook

Blue = Colder Than Normal
Brown = Warmer Than Normal

June - July - August Temperature Outlook

Blue = Colder Than Normal
Brown = Warmer Than Normal

June Rainfall Outlook

Green = Wetter Than Normal
Brown = Drier Than Normal

June - July - August Rainfall Outlook

Green = Wetter Than Normal
Brown = Drier Than Normal

Science Behind The Forecast

There are a number of factors influencing the 1- and 3-month outlooks. These include: Residual High Soil Moisture (below). The NOAA outlook expects current high soil moisture over the middle of the nation to hold temperatures in check well into the summer. In addition, upper soil moisture will be transported into the lower atmosphere via evapotranspiration thereby enhancing chances for summertime thunderstorms.

Trends

Trends: Research indicates summers are getting hotter across most of the U.S.

Climate Models: 

Outlooks, especially later in the forecast period, align closely with long-lead climate models, especially the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME).

El Niño and other teleconnections

Models indicate a weak to borderline-moderate El Niño through the summer months.  In addition, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is expected in influence weather patterns in June. 

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