By the Numbers
By the Numbers for the week of April 1, 2019
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50 degrees to spring
A sure sign of spring is the northward transport of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, as measured by the dew point. As spring progresses, there is usually a battle between cold and dry arctic air and warm and moist tropical air. When dew points above 50 degrees prevail for longer periods of time, spring has likely arrived. (Blue Water Outlook)
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11-20 years
It’s not been a normal spring for most areas. In Oklahoma, for example, this late of a transition only occurs once every 11 to 20 years. (National Phenology Network, Blue Water Outlook)
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68% probability of El Niño into fall 2019
Most forecast models issued during mid-March are showing weak or moderate strength El Niño conditions for the March through May season. The El Niño will likely continue into summer and there is a 68% chance it will persist into early fall 2019, weakening but not disappearing by late fall. (International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University)
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1 more US Drought Monitor record
Another week and another first for the U.S. Drought Monitor: the wet 2018-2019 winter could be called a super drought killer or for some, a cattle or livestock killer. It has singlehandedly eradicated drought in California and Nevada and is currently working on the extreme drought that had persisted in Colorado and the surrounding states since late 2017. Yesterday, with the release of the latest Drought Monitor, we see the lowest percentage of areas in Severe Drought (D2) since the Drought Monitor started in 2000. Of course, we can’t forget about those in the central Plains states that are dealing with results of such a wet winter. Unfortunately for those in the Missouri River Basin, it seems to be either too dry or too wet. (Livestock Wx)
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50% probability South Texas will be wetter than average over next 6-10 days
We won’t assign a probability the dry conditions in South Texas will be improving but we don’t see the dryness and drought there will get any worse. In fact, the most recent US Drought Outlook expects conditions to improve over the next couple of weeks and we would agree. The biggest area to watch for dryness/drought now is the Pacific Northwest. (Livestock Wx)